Holding the prediction market industry accountable.

Prediction markets are growing fast. The companies behind them should be growing responsibly.

FairPredicts is a nonpartisan market integrity watchdog. We track how prediction market operators are regulated, how they advertise, and whether their conduct matches their claims.

Right now, the answer is often no.

The Problem

Kalshi and Polymarket have moved fast to capture market share and political attention.

What they have not done is play by the rules that govern every other financial operator in America.

We're documenting the gap.

Accountability

Four Areas of Accountability

False Advertising
Kalshi tells the public: "We are not the house." That is false. Kalshi's market makers set odds, manage market positions, and profit on the spread. That is the textbook definition of the house.
Insider Trading
Kalshi claims to ban insider trading while simultaneously lobbying Congress for lighter oversight. The gap between their advertising and their regulatory posture is documented in the public record.
Anti-Money Laundering
As a CFTC-designated contract market, Kalshi is subject to AML compliance requirements. Their KYC and transaction monitoring falls below the standards applied to every licensed gaming operator in America.
Market Integrity
FairPredicts documents whether prediction market operators' conduct matches their claims — to regulators, to lawmakers, and to the consumers they're actively recruiting.
FairPredicts is a nonpartisan market integrity watchdog that will work to shine a light on the statements and actions of prediction market operators through research, data, and storytelling.
Read the research. Follow the accountability. →